New Delhi, March 01: Brent crude prices could surge above $90 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption and potentially exceed $100 per barrel in the event of a broader regional conflict, according to a report by JM Financial Institutional Securities on Sunday.
The brokerage noted that Brent has already climbed to around $72.8 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Limited retaliation could push prices up by $5–10 per barrel, while direct damage to Iranian oil infrastructure may add $10–12 per barrel.
The report highlighted India’s vulnerability to oil price shocks, estimating that every $1 increase in crude raises the country’s annual import bill by roughly $2 billion, straining the trade balance.
Nearly 20% of global oil flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with over 40% of India’s crude imports routed through the corridor.
Markets may shift from earnings-driven to oil-driven trends in the near term, with crude emerging as the key macro variable for Indian equities. Upstream oil producers such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited could benefit from stronger realisations. Defence stocks including Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) may see sentiment support.
