New Delhi, April 23, 2026: India’s economy has developed strong resilience to elevated energy prices and is capable of sustaining growth above 7 per cent even if crude oil remains in the $90–100 per barrel range, industry body Assocham said on Wednesday.
The chamber noted that over the past two and a half decades, India has successfully absorbed multiple oil price shocks without significantly disrupting its growth trajectory.
Analysis of data from 2000–01 to 2025–26 shows that several high-growth phases coincided with moderate to high crude prices. The economy expanded by 7.6 per cent in 2022–23 when the Indian crude basket averaged $93 per barrel, and recorded 7.2 per cent growth in 2023–24 with prices at $82 per barrel.
According to Nirmal Kumar Minda, President of Assocham, India’s growth continues to be driven by strong domestic consumption, which fuels manufacturing, job creation and income growth, creating a virtuous economic cycle.
He added that sustained government investment in infrastructure, particularly through higher capital expenditure, has played a key role in cushioning the economy against external shocks.
The analysis further pointed out that even during 2011–14, when crude oil prices remained above $100 per barrel, India’s GDP growth stayed in the range of 5.2 to 6.4 per cent. In contrast, the sharp contraction of -5.78 per cent in 2020–21 occurred despite relatively low oil prices, indicating that the downturn was primarily driven by the COVID-19 pandemic rather than energy costs.
Looking ahead, growth projections remain positive. The Reserve Bank of India has estimated GDP growth at around 6.9 per cent for 2026–27, while Assocham expects the economy to expand beyond 7 per cent, supported by robust consumption, stable exports and rising capital investment.
