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Round The World
The N-Deal Crisis
DELAYED BUT NOT THE END
By Shailza Singh
(Research Scholar, JNU)
New Delhi, 22 October 2007
What is the future of the Indo-US civil
nuclear deal? This is the million dollar question. The recent
assertion by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress
President Sonia Gandhi that the Government would not be put at
stake over the deal, as a measure to defuse the political
disquiet haunting the UPA, seems to have made the Government
sink even deeper into crisis.
In a bizarre turn of events, the Big Two, Sonia and Manmohan
have shown their preference of the Government over the Nuclear
deal, a pact they were so enthusiastic and committed to and
wanted it clinched “in the national interest”.
Pertinently, the extensively debated and politically divisive
123 Agreement, that is supposed to operationalise the Indo-US
nuclear deal, landed the UPA Government into a crisis-like
situation. The Government lauded the Agreement as the biggest
breakthrough in years and a major achievement for four
reasons.
End Nuclear Isolation
One, the deal would end more than three decades of India’s
nuclear isolation and enable the country to launch a new large
scale industry of its own. Two, it would serve the imperative
of India’s future energy security as nuclear power is
essential for the country’s energy needs.
Three, it would alter the geo-strategic balance in Asia to the
advantage of India. And lastly it would enable access to
dual-use technology that would make available to Indian
laboratories and industries a range of components and
equipments having a variety of applications in other areas
like medical research, space technology, defence,
bio-technology, nanotechnology and manufacture of sports
goods.
Left Objections
However, soon after the completion of the Agreement, serious
objections were raised by not only the main Opposition party,
the BJP, but also the Left parties that support the Government
from outside. The Red Brigade threatened to withdraw support
to the UPA if the deal was operationalised. They along with
the other parties opposing the deal together constituted a
clear Parliamentary majority thus creating political
turbulence.
Significantly, the two sides of the political spectrum opposed
the deal on divergent grounds. The BJP found the deal
unacceptable as it was “an assault on India’s nuclear
sovereignty and foreign policy”. Its opposition stemmed from
the concern that the country would be coaxed to accept what is
essentially a CTBT.
The Left’s opposition to the deal turned out to be quite
different from that of the political right. It was rooted in
ideological grounds based on resisting the expansion of the US
political and economic supremacy. It argued that the deal
would lead to aligning India’s interests to that of the US.
Hence its opposition was not to the deal per se but to its
larger policy implications. Moreover, this strategic alliance
would have rippling consequences that would haunt it later.
The Left parties with 62 MPs in the Lok Sabha threatened to
withdraw support from the Government over the deal and
demanded a six month pause on the operationalization of the
deal. Never mind, that it had been debated in both Houses of
Parliament several times. Which is unprecedented in regard to
international agreements.
Govt Efforts Futile
While the BJP’s opposition was perceived as motivated by
factional hostility, the Government took the Left’s opposition
seriously because their support is crucial for the
Government’s survival. Thus, while it rejected the BJP’s
demand for setting up a Joint Parliamentary Committee to look
into ‘the legal lacunae’ in the 123 Agreement, the Government
set up a 15-member UPA-Left panel in late August.
The panel headed by the External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee was to consider the Left’s objections and resolve
the differences. But the Government’s stand was that the 123
Agreement could not be renegotiated and nor could it be
negotiated in parts. Hence, there was no scope for further
fine-tuning.
The Prime Minister seemed fully committed to the deal, even
setting up a tentative timeline to conclude its negotiations
with the IAEA in October. The Congress Party came up with a
21-page booklet named “India’s Nuclear Energy Programme and
the 123 Agreement with the United States” dismissing the
charges that the Agreement would affect India’s ability to
conduct an independent foreign policy and strategic programme.
It also projected it as a pro-poor and pro-people programme
pact. Besides, any backtracking would lead to significant
embarrassment for India globally and for the Government
domestically.
The Government presented the 123 Agreement as a diplomatic
victory wherein the country managed to strike a better bargain
from the US than China. (Beijing does not possess the right to
reprocess.) Not only that. A similar deal had been denied to
Pakistan and it was a “historic opportunity” which the country
could not afford to miss.
Allies Have Second Thoughts
However, the Left did not buy the Government’s arguments. The
more the Agreement was discussed the more the Left highlighted
the legal lacunae of the pact. With the debate getting more
intense the chances of a consensus remained bleak. At the same
time there was mounting reluctance from the allies --- RJD,
NCP and DMK to stake the Government over the deal. A
“deal-or-Government” situation emerged.
Owing to the electoral calculations and pressure from the
coalition partners, Sonia and Manmohan switched gears. That
too at a time when it seemed that the Government was all set
for the next steps towards operationalising the deal. It
decided to slow down the process of going ahead with the deal.
The Government considers it a well thought of and realistic
step to take the Left parties on board and then proceed with
the negotiations. Given the fact that if the Left withdrew
support, a minority Government would not be able to undertake
credible negotiations internationally.
Congressmen Upset
Needless to say, this step has been criticized within the
Congress. The leadership has been charged of “inglorious
surrender to the enemies of the nation,” said former Union
Minister Ram Jethmalani. Add to this a blame game has started
between the Congress and its allies over who is responsible
for this climb down.
On the other hand, the turnaround has increased the
credibility of the Left whose opposition to the deal was
basically aimed at restoring their core constituency, largely
of peasants, blue collar workers and Muslims, who were feeling
increasingly alienated because of the Government’s closer ties
with the US. Now they are in a “victorious” situation while
the Congress is in a state of disappointment.
So, what next? Is the deal dead? Can India further delay the
next steps towards operationalising the deal without killing
the deal itself? Well, as of now the presumption about the
death of the deal would be premature. The panel meeting to be
held on October 22 has not been called off and is critical.
However, it is most likely that the deal will be delayed and
will be de-linked from the Bush administration’s time-table.
The signal of slow down of the process of proceeding with the
deal will be sent to the US and the agreement is not a done
deal now. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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