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Round The World
Military Rule in Myanmar
BEGINNING OF THE END?
By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi, October 07, 2007
The peaceful marches by the monks and the common people
against the continuing misrule of the ruling military junta in
Myanmar appear to be the beginning of the ultimate end of the
authoritarian governance in that country.
For close to about two decades, the pro-democracy movement in
Myanmar under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi was going no where, even as the international community
gave little more than lip service to the cause of the
restoration of democracy.
Myanmar under the rule of the military junta was co-opted as a
member of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The Asian giants — India and China — have maintained cordial
relations with Myanmar in trade, investment and security
areas. The US continually voiced its concern over violation of
human rights and lent its moral and political support to the
pro-democracy movement, but it had little effect on the
military junta.
When the military junta reportedly resorted to brutal
suppression of the peaceful marchers, the United States and
the European Union imposed sanctions against Myanmar. However,
there are concerns that such sanctions are not working
specifically because China and India maintain cooperative ties
with the military junta.
China & ASEAN
One can easily understand Beijing’s support to the military
junta. China, a Communist country itself, is not terribly
interested in promoting democracy in Myanmar. To an extent,
even ASEAN has little interest in the restoration of democracy
in Myanmar. Some members of ASEAN are non-democratic and the
association in principle opposes political interference in the
domestic affairs of the member states.
Thus, the focus of attention is on New Delhi’s position. India
itself is a vibrant democracy in the Third World. There are
expectations that India should lend its support to the
democratic elements in Myanmar. India has made common
political cause with the United States for working towards
enlargement of democracy. There are many critics within the
country of the Government’s lacklustre support to democracy in
the neighbourhood, including in Myanmar.
However, the Government of India faces considerable
constraints in interfering in the domestic politics of
Myanmar. First of all, Myanmar, among our neighbouring
countries, is one of the few to extend its cooperation in
India’s war against terror in the north-eastern states.
Several of the terrorist groups from this region have
established training camps and hideouts in the dense forest of
Sagaing in Myanmar and Bangladesh. Like the long border with
Bangladesh, India shares more than a thousand kilometers of
land border with Myanmar. Without the cooperation of these
Governments, it would not be easy for India to adopt a robust
counter-terrorism policy.
However, unlike Bangladesh, Myanmar has extended substantial
cooperation to India’s counter-terrorism efforts. Especially
since Myanmar’s Junta Chief Senior General Than Shwe’s visit
to Delhi in 2004, coordination between Indian and Myanmar
security forces in counter-insurgency operations has witnessed
dramatic growth.
General Shwe actually assured India that he would not allow
his country to be used by anti-India militant groups. When
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee visited Myanmar in January
this year, counter-terrorism cooperation between the two
countries was institutionalized.
Hydro-Carbon Resources
Secondly, Myanmar sits over an important segment of
hydro-carbon resources of South-East Asia. Its offshore gas
fields have the potential to help India meet its energy
challenges against the backdrop of a growing economy. In the
recent past New Delhi offered $150 million of assistance to
explore the energy resources of Myanmar.
Thirdly, a strategically located and mineral resource-rich
Myanmar is being courted by several countries, such as South
Korean and French oilmen, German tourists, Russian arms
sellers, Chinese real estate developers and the Chinese
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) seeking facilities to protect
and promote its interests in the Indian Ocean. India cannot
afford to avoid its own constructive role in engaging Myanmar
in the cooperative frameworks to fulfill its national
interests and in maintaining regional peace and stability.
In the face of political instability in Myanmar and the
murmuring in the Western capitals that China was partly
responsible for Myanmar’s military junta’s ability to defy the
western sanctions and perpetuate authoritarian rule, the
Chinese Government has taken a well-crafted policy position.
China’s Tang Jiaxuan, a personal envoy of the Chinese
President Hu Jintao, told the Yangon’s special envoy U Nyan
Win that “China wholeheartedly hopes that Myanmar will push
forward a democracy process that is appropriate for the
country." China’s official news agency Xinhua circulated
Tang's extended comments that China “sincerely hopes Myanmar
will restore internal stability as soon as possible, properly
handle issues and actively promote national reconciliation".
China clearly took such a position to protect its image as the
main supporter of the military junta in Myanmar. But a careful
examination of the comment would reveal that China did little
else except hoping and did not push for a democracy that was
not “appropriate for the country”!
Significantly, India’s response to the unfolding events in
Myanmar was not drastically different from that of China. The
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently met Myanmar’s
Foreign Minister U Nyan Win, on the sidelines of the UN
General Assembly and “expressed concern at the current
situation in Myanmar, noting that as a close and friendly
neighbour, India hoped to see peace, prosperity and stability
in Myanmar.”
Mukherjee also expressed the hope that the process of national
reconciliation and political reform, initiated by the
Government of Myanmar, would be taken forward expeditiously.
Further, he suggested that the “Government could consider
undertaking an inquiry into the recent incidents and the use
of force.”
People’s Determination
If China and India do little more than just hope the situation
improves in Myanmar, one can expect that sooner than later the
military junta would restore peace by suppressing the peace
marchers. But history is witness to the fact that no
Government can tick on for long once the common people show
their determination to bring down a Government that in their
perception was not delivering the goods.
Remember, the transition to democracy in the Philippines and
South Korea in the 1980s took place against the backdrop of
the suppression of democracy in Myanmar in 1988 and the
violent crackdown by the Chinese Government against the
pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing in 1989.
But the unfolding events in Myanmar suggest that the people’s
power will now triumph. The monks are highly revered in
Myanmar. Some soldiers recently refused to open fire on them
and defied the authorities. The country’s economy is not doing
very well for equitable resource distribution in the society.
The country remains pathetically isolated in a rapidly
globalizing world. It is now a matter of time before the junta
bows before the people’s will.
It is time for the Government of India to think ahead and plan
for an appropriate response rather than treat the developments
in Myanmar to be yet another minor incident involving the
pro-democracy activists’ struggle against authoritarianism.
---INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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