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ROUND THE WORLD
Pakistan: Repeat of 1971?
HEADING TOWARDS DISINTEGRATION
By Sreedhar
New Delhi,
November 12, 2007
Since the declaration of emergency on
November 3, the developments in Pakistan indicate that the
country is slowly drifting in to a civil war. President
Musharraf’s rule is being opposed by two groups --- jehadis on
one hand and defunct political parties and activists of civil
society on the other.
The latest reports indicate there is an even underground
movement opposing Gen. Musharraf. According to unconfirmed
reports the jehadis have captured large parts of the Swat area
and Waziristan and are moving in two directions. Some are
moving towards Peshawar and others towards Islamabad.
The initial reports indicate that the police and the Pakistani
para-military forces numbering over 900, in these areas have
surrendered to the Tehreek Nafaz-e-Shariet Muhammadi (the
Movement for Enforcement of Islamic Laws), with their weapons.
According to Western intelligence assessments over the past
few years, the Pakistani Armed Forces are vertically split
into pro and anti jehadi forces. According to some assessments
around 40 to 50 per cent of the Armed Forces are sympathetic
to the jehadi cause and support them.
The pro-jehadi Armed Forces argue that they have fought along
with them against the Red Army during the 1980s and
facilitated their training in the subsequent years. Over the
years, these jehadis have become part and parcel of the
Pakistan Establishment.
In addition, this more than two decades long association
between the Armed Forces and jehadis makes it clear that each
support the other in their cause like the jehadis facilitating
Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear proliferation. With the
majority of the jehadis being locals, now the rank and file of
the Armed Forces, are also asking why they should fight
against their brethren?
Benazir’s Credibility
Meanwhile, there is a tussle between the young lawyers of the
Pakistan Bar Council and Benazir Bhutto to lead protests
against President Musharraf from next week onwards. There is
no trust among many young Pakistanis about Benazir’s
credibility. She is being seen as a politician who colluded
with Musharraf and managed to come back to Pakistan.
Against this backdrop, the immediate question that is being
debated among various Pakistani friends is what will be the
future of the Pakistani polity? It is no longer being
described as a failing State or failed state or even a
withering State. They perceive the present developments as the
beginning of end of Pakistan. In this context one can
visualize four scenarios.
The first could be that Gen. Musharraf will continue to rule
Pakistan for some more time to come with a rag-tag coalition
like President Hamid Karzai is doing next door in Afghanistan.
Many observers feel that people like Benazir Bhutto may join
the Government any time.
Some reports coming from Dubai indicate that Benazir has been
offered the post of the Prime Minister in the new dispensation
by President Musharraf and she has accepted it. At this stage
one is not too sure how long such an arrangement can continue.
Besides, seeing the opposition to Gen. Musharraf increasing
day by day, the ambitious Benazir might be looking for greener
pastures and could even try to settle scores with the
Pakistani Army. Some observers even feel she will ditch
Musharraf at an opportune time. Only the timing is not known.
The second scenario could be that the present breakdown of law
and order will force another General to step in and replace
Musharraf. Unconfirmed Pakistani reports indicate that Gen.
Musharraf is under house arrest (!) and the Corps Commanders
are debating about the modalities to be followed to change the
head at the top. These reports gained further credence when
the US State Department announced that they are not keeping
all their options on one person --- Gen. Musharraf, alone.
Donors’ Displeasure
Since most of the Pakistani donor countries have expressed
their displeasure about the declaration of emergency, in the
next few weeks the external aid inflow into Pakistan will
considerably slow down. The Pakistani economy has been
sustaining itself on external aid only during the past five
years.
Present estimates place that, between 2001-06 Pakistan got
around $ 20 billion aid. Thus, if the aid inflow stops, the
Pakistani economy would collapse. Already the Karachi stock
market index is tumbling indicating that there is a crisis in
the Pakistani economy.
All this necessitates some quick action by the Pakistani Armed
Forces who are at the helm of affairs now, to turn the tide
against these negative trends.
The third scenario could be that President Musharraf will hold
elections as scheduled in January 2008 and restore democratic
rule in the country. Already there are reports in the media
stating that the emergency is for two months only and the
elections would be held as scheduled in January 2008.
However, this scenario seems to be highly unlikely, for two
reasons. One, notwithstanding the pressure from his allies
like the US asking him to give up his office of Chief of the
Army Staff and allow the elections, Gen Musharraf knows only
too well that he is indispensable to Washington in its war
against terror. Therefore, whatever may be the US’s friendly
advises, his support in Washington would not come down.
At another level, Gen. Musharaff feels that the political
vacuum created by him in the country and the influence enjoyed
by the jehadis would continue for some more time. Therefore,
by doing a balancing act by pleasing the jehadis at one end
and giving some incentives to people like Benazir on the
other, he can survive.
The last scenario could be that different socio-political
forces in Pakistan would push the country into different
directions. Already, the Taliban-al-Qaeeda combine rule most
of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and parts of the
North West Frontier Province.
Many observers who visited these areas during the past few
weeks assert that these areas have declared themselves as
independent from Islamabad. A Taliban type of rule is in vogue
in these areas. Moreover, in many Government offices in the
jehadi occupied areas, the Pakistani National Flag has been
pulled down and replaced by black and white flags reminiscent
of the Taliban type of rule. Already, a local private FM radio
in the Swat area has been announcing the areas captured by the
jehadis since November 5.
There are also reports that even the Pakistani army deputed by
Islamabad, to gain control of the area and establish its
authority, has surrendered to the local tribal leaders loyal
to Taliban-al-Qaeeda.
Given this dicey situation, the unfolding events indicate that
the two provinces, Baluchistan and the NWFP are tilting
towards separation from Pakistan. In the past too, both these
provinces felt that they were being exploited by the
Punjabi-dominated Pakistanis and had been demanding separation
from Pakistan.
Phaktoonistan & Baluchistan
However, the demand for a creation of Phaktoonistan by the
Pashtuns and a separate Baluchistan by the Baluchis (by people
like Khan of Kalat) was crushed by brute force. Today, all
these sub-ethnic forces have ganged up together again and are
fighting against the Pakistani State. Significantly, the
coming months will show whether Pakistan is going to
experience another 1971 type of situation.
Clearly, the territorial integrity of Pakistan is of immediate
concern to the two major powers --- US and China, and to
immediate neighbours like India. The US considers Pakistan as
a frontline State in its war against terrorism. In fact, it
has stationed more than 25,000 US troops in Pakistan
permanently. Besides, the American strategic community is
divided over the division of Pakistan. Some feel that a
divided Pakistan would be unable to provide safe havens to the
jehadis and managing smaller states would be much easier in
the emerging geo-political order.
The Chinese consider that Pakistan provides an important
outlet to reach the Indian Ocean. Their investment in the
Gwador port in Baluchistan is one example. The thriving
bilateral trade by road via the Karakoram highway connecting
both the countries is another example of the Chinese stakes in
Pakistan. Till now Beijing has refused to comment on the
unfolding civil war like situation in Pakistan.
Many observers aver that neither of these two allies of
Pakistan have any control over the events happening in that
country.
From the Indian prospective, the developments in Pakistan are
unfortunate. South Block is busy debating where these will
lead to. If Pakistan’s disintegration becomes inevitable, the
civil war among the new nation states would continue for some
more years to come.
In this new situation what would be the position of the
jehadis operating in J&K? There is no gainsaying that the
jehadis can not expect any support from the Pakistani
Establishment as in the past. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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