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Round The World
Musharraf Vulnerable
NORMALCY IN PAK A FAR CRY
Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi,
November 07, 2007
The way the international community has
responded to the imposition of emergency in Pakistan by
President Pervez Musharraf is as though it is a surprise move
by the Pakistani strongman.
But, President Musharraf’s multiple failures were all
indicative that emergency was imminent. His failures include
the inability to come to terms with the developments in the
North West Frontier Province either by diplomacy or military
means, to anticipate and prevent a terrorist attack that could
have killed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, defeat at
the hands of the lawyers who restored suspended Chief Justice
Iftikar Chaudhary to office and the rising trend of militant
violence in the major cities.
Musharraf knew very well that he was increasingly becoming a
target of Western criticism for his powerlessness to check
cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan, quite in contrast to
years’ of praise he received for his cooperation in the war
against terrorism. He realized that his policy of selective
openness and controlled democracy made him an easy target of
the media, the opposition political parties and even the
judiciary.
Well aware of the fate of departing dictators, Musharraf
clamped emergency in the country before it was too late. He
didn’t give the judiciary the time to decide the legitimacy of
his recent election by the National Assembly. The Supreme
Court, headed by a Chief Justice he had unsuccessfully tried
to overthrow and who had become extremely popular at home and
well-known abroad, could not have been expected to deliver a
verdict to his liking. Musharraf feared that in case the court
verdict went against his election, it would have been almost
impossible for him to control events in his own favour.
Thus, he had enough reasons to justify his action. He put the
blame on the judiciary for being overactive and infringing the
jurisdiction of the executive. He criticized the media for
being irresponsible. He warned the country of rising militant
violence and suicide bombings. He wanted to save the country
and thus imposed the emergency rule.
But to his surprise there aren’t many takers of his so-called
justifications either within Pakistan or outside of it. He was
already blamed for his failing policies in the West before
imposing the emergency. Recently, the Newsweek International
depicted Pakistan as the world’s “most dangerous” place, where
everything was available that could have been asked by Osama
bin Laden: “political instability, radical Islamists,
abundance of young anti-Western recruits, secluded training
areas along the northern border with Afghanistan, and access
to state-of-the-art electronic technology.” And, the blame was
put on the Pakistani Government for all this.
The Financial Times, London, pointed out that Pakistan was
fast sliding into a condition of a failed State with Islamic
militants extending their activities to major cities from the
jungles of the NWFP. A New York Times story said that Pakistan
was one country “where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and nuclear
weapons are all in play.”
For months, American foreign policy analysts and some
legislators have been questioning the wisdom of the Bush
Administration’s policy of putting all American anti-terrorism
eggs in Musharraf’s basket. The White House had little
alternative and kept its faith in President Musharraf. Less
than two weeks before the imposition of emergency, White House
officials in media interviews persisted in their assessment
that Musharraf would maintain enough influence to maintain
stability and order in Pakistan. The Bush Administration also
spent enormous diplomatic energy into roping in Benazir Bhutto
and her Pakistan People’s Party to a power-sharing arrangement
with President Musharraf.
However, once the suicide bomb exploded, killing and injuring
scores of people during the welcome procession of Benazir,
Bush Administration officials saw the writing on the wall. The
political meltdown came to be viewed as “the nightmare
scenario” for President George Bush’s last 15 months in
office.
No one knows whether the attack was aimed at Benazir or was a
warning to President Musharraf or was a demonstration of
hatred against the US-sponsored compromise deal. It could have
as well been all in one. But speculation on that has receded
to the background with the clamping down of emergency,
interpreted by some as a sort of martial law.
Now, Pakistani lawyers are on the streets once again
protesting the dismissal of judges and the unconstitutional
imposition of emergency. The militants and religious
extremists may go into hiding for sometime, but would sooner
rather than later strike their next target. Significantly,
Pakistan’s aid donors have expressed their reservations
against the emergency and have urged Musharraf to return to
civilian rule soon.
After investing more than $ 10 billion in Pakistan since
September 11 terrorist attacks on the US, the Bush
Administration has come under severe criticism for failing to
achieve the objectives of the aid. President Musharraf lacks
ability to control the Taliban and Al Qaeda infested NWFP.
Afghanistan continues to be in turmoil, partly because of
Pakistani failure or lackluster support to the US efforts.
Militancy and extremism within Pakistan has been on the rise.
It is thus no wonder that US Secretary of State has urged
Musharraf to lift the emergency and hold elections. The
American response has been carefully calculated not to
distance itself from President Musharraf completely, since
there is no viable alternative yet. The mild pressure on him
is aimed at public diplomacy to explain the US stand against
authoritarian measures of Musharraf.
Frankly, no one knows whether an election conducted by
Musharraf with a judiciary under his influence and a media
under his control can at all restore normalcy to Pakistan?
Quick lifting of emergency will prove Musharraf to be a
vulnerable General and expose his weaknesses. Holding of
elections under his stewardship may not be acceptable to the
Pakistan people. Embracing a stronger and more authoritarian
Musharraf will be difficult for the Bush Administration and
that too in an election year.
This is one of the situations where rational calculations by
foreign policy realists can go completely wrong. While a
country with nuclear weapons, terrorists and aid dependent
economy is a frightening development for India, so is it for
the most powerful country in the world. The continuing
insurgency in Iraq, uncertainty over Iran’s directions in
nuclear diplomacy, re-emergence of the Taliban as a force in
Afghanistan and a political meltdown in Pakistan pose enormous
challenges to India and the international community.--- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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