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Round The World
Triangular Talks: India, Russia, China
DISASTER IF AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ IGNORED
By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
School of International Studies, JNU
New Delhi,
November 05, 2007
The joint communiqué issued on October 24
after the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of India, China and
Russia is completely silent on the events and issues relating
to Afghanistan and Iraq. This communiqué reiterated the
triangular relations evolving between India, China and Russia
are not targeted against a third country. It was perhaps
feared that comments or a coordinated approach to the Afghan
or Iraq crisis would offend the US and some NATO members.
However, if the India, China and Russia triangular
relationship has to assume a substantive character, ignoring
significant issues, such as Afghanistan and Iraq would spell
disaster. Simply making rhetorical statements related to
terrorism, drugs trafficking etc. would not hold well.
It is true that these three countries do not have identical
positions on Afghanistan and Iraq. But there are certain
similar perceptions, which could have found a place in the
joint communiqué and would have indicated a desire on the part
of a resurgent Russia, rising China and the emerging India to
come to terms with the two most significant dangers
challenging Asian stability and peace.
There are indications that the Western alliance under the US
leadership is incrementally failing to stabilize and
reconstruct Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan is central, in
addition to Pakistan, to tackle international terrorism. Iraq
is one of the key actors in the maintenance of long term
energy security in the world. Both these countries are under
the military control of the Western powers for years.
Four years after the US military intervention, Iraq appears to
be much worse off than it was earlier. Iraqi nationalism has
become a thing of the past and various ethnic groups are at
war with one another.
Cooperative Federalism
The plan to create a cooperative federalism is not working and
a centrally controlled Iraq is now next to impossible. What is
increasingly becoming likely is the emergence of multiple
states out of the present Iraq or an unstable, fragmented and
weak Iraq posing enormous security challenges to regional
peace and stability.
More significantly, an increasing number of Americans are
skeptical of the Bush Administration’s approach to Iraq. The
Democratic Party is not only opposed to the continuation of
the troops presence in Iraq, the leading Presidential nominee
for the 2008 election Hillary Clinton in an article in Foreign
Affairs has promised to initiate US troops withdrawal within
six days of entering the White House, if elected. Even the
Republican Party does not appear to have a united voice on
Iraq any more.
The situation in Afghanistan is even worse. Six years after
the US military intervention and removal of the Taliban
Government, the State-building efforts in that country are
going nowhere. The Taliban is rapidly re-grouping and
spreading its influence. More and more Afghans have been
expressing their support to the return of a Taliban-led
Government.
The opium production in that country was negligible during the
last days of the Taliban Government and today Afghanistan
accounts for more than 90 per cent of the world opium
production.
The US got almost unanimous support from the international
community in its fight against the Taliban regime in Kabul.
NATO for the first time in its history invoked the self-defence
clause and offered complete support to the US.
While Pakistan reluctantly distanced itself against the
Taliban, Iran too came out in favour of the US action in
Afghanistan. A large number of the Afghan people welcomed the
US soldiers into their territory with the hope of seeing a
renewed, peaceful and stable post-Taliban Afghanistan.
But today, the situation has completely changed. Attacks
against the US and NATO forces are rising day by day. There
were hardly any suicide bombers during 2001-2004. This year
alone there are more than 70 instances of suicide bombings in
Afghanistan. Not only are the Afghan insurgents turning
against the Western forces, even Pakistan is allegedly
hesitant to give its best in the war against the Taliban and
Al Qaeda.
Terrorism Impact
Significantly, Pakistan has begun to witness and experience
the impact of terrorism in the hands of those it once trained
and equipped to fight against its perceived enemies and
adversaries. Recently more than six dozen Taliban soldiers
have reportedly been killed in the Helmand province in
Afghanistan in one of the fiercest battles with the NATO
forces.
In the meantime, the United Nations has expressed a desire for
more NATO forces to protect the UN aid workers who have been
under attack from the insurgents. According to UN sources,
more than 30 aid workers have been killed, more than 70
abducted and more than 100 convoys have been looted this year.
And unless this trend is checked, UN aid efforts would face
substantial hurdles.
It appears that six years after the removal of the Taliban
regime in Kabul, the law and order situation in the country
has been going from bad to worse. It reminds one the bloody
years of the Soviet military presence, the post-Soviet troop
withdrawal chaos and bloodshed and the steady rise of the
Taliban as a force to reckon with.
The US fairly swiftly overthrew the Taliban regime after the
9/11 terrorist attacks, but has failed to capture or kill the
top leadership. It has also failed in State building efforts.
The Taliban was defeated for a short while, but regrouping of
the cadres seems to be taking place at a faster rate now.
According to an unpublished report prepared for the Pentagon,
popular support to the idea of a return to the
Taliban-controlled Government in Kabul has doubled since May
among the Afghan people.
The American legislators have begun to question the wisdom of
Bush Administration’s policy toward Afghanistan. There are
complaints that the $3 billion expenditure in countering drug
production has failed to produce results. The US has spent
about $6 billion in training a new police force in
Afghanistan.
More than 76,000 police forces have been trained, but US
legislators are concerned that “no one knows how many report
for duties and how may are capable of handling situations.”
Moreover, there is no accountability of weapons supplied to
police stations and no end use verification.
Bipartisan Support
One legislator argues: “…the Bush Administration scaled down
the nation building efforts in Afghanistan in less than two
years and diverted it to Iraq. There was bipartisan support in
the US, global support, including by Iran to set Afghanistan
right and even the Afghan people shed their traditional
xenophobia and invited coalition forces to end the Taliban
excesses. But the US Administration failed to capitalize on
this.”
Russia, China and India have to take note of the fact that
continuing failure of the Western country to stabilize Iraq
and Afghanistan will spell disaster to this region. There is
less likelihood of the US being challenged in its territory,
as was done on September 2001, by Al Qaeda or other terrorist
bodies. There are more likelihood of Russia and China and
India facing the brunt of chaos and instability in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Let us hope that the triangular talks involving the Foreign
Ministries of these three countries will take serious note of
these events in the subsequent rounds. --- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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