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Round The World
Pakistan’s Shaheen-II
RACE FOR MISSILE SUPREMACY
By Dr. Monika Chansoria
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi, May 12, 2008
South Asia has yet again plunged into a quest
for missile supremacy, with Pakistan successfully test firing
the Shaheen-II long-range, surface-to-surface ballistic
missile last month from an undisclosed location. Also referred
to as the Hatf-VI, the missile has a 2000 km (1,245 miles)
range and is capable of carrying nuclear as well as
conventional warheads.
The Pakistan army’s Strategic Forces Command launched the
Shaheen-II during a field training exercise on April 19, 2008.
According to a statement released later by the military,
“Shaheen-II is a two-stage solid fuel missile that can carry
nuclear and conventional warheads with high accuracy. The
launch of the missile was part of the process of validation of
the operational readiness of a strategic missile group and
technical improvements to consolidate and verify various
land-based strategic missile systems.”
Shaheen-II is the longest-range ballistic missile of the
several missiles in Pakistan’s nuclear-capable arsenal
qualifying to hit targets anywhere in India, Iran, as well as
Afghanistan through to Central Asia.
Recently appointed Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani
witnessed the testing of Shaheen-II and termed it as an
‘important milestone in Pakistan’s quest for sustaining
strategic balance’ in South Asia. His presence was symbolic in
that it was an indicator of the fact that the newly-elected
government in Pakistan was well in control of the political
and military establishments of the country.
In addition, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General
Tariq Majeed and Defence Minister Ahmed Mukhtar also witnessed
the missile test. Commenting on the reliability of Pakistan’s
nuclear capability, Navy Chief Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir
congratulated those responsible for the ‘successful launch and
the accuracy of the missile at the target. Pakistan could be
proud of the reliability of its nuclear deterrence and the
country would further enhance its nuclear capability.’
Islamabad’s foreign office spokesman said Pakistan’s strategic
force goals were determined by the requirements of minimum
overt deterrence. “We have to test these missiles from time to
time. The reach of the missile should be enough to deter
aggression. When we do take the test, we inform neighbours and
concerned countries. It reflects Pakistan’s resolve to
maintain minimum credible deterrence as the cornerstone of its
security policy.”
The National Defence Complex, a subsidiary of the Pakistan
Atomic Energy Commission directly manages the Shaheen project.
However, unlike the liquid-fueled Ghauri, the Shaheen-II uses
a two-stage solid propellant motor. Solid fuel can be left in
the missile indefinitely, unlike liquid fuel, and therefore,
dramatically decreases the time it takes to launch the missile
thereby heightening deterrence.
Various defence analysts are of the opinion that Shaheen-II is
possibly a two-stage version of the M-9, or more likely a copy
of the Chinese M-18, which was publicly displayed at an
exhibition in Beijing in 1988. The M-18 was originally
advertised as a two-stage system with a payload capacity of
400-500 kgs over a range of 1,000 kms. US intelligence sources
suggest that Pakistan remains heavily reliant on external
assistance for Shaheen-II programme and that China is actively
assisting Pakistan through the supply of missile components,
specialty materials, dual-use items, and other miscellaneous
forms of technical assistance.
Since the late 1980s and early 1990s, Pakistan has invested in
both solid-motor and liquid-engine ballistic missile
programmes with significant Chinese and North Korean
assistance, respectively. In the early 1990s Islamabad
acquired Chinese M-11 missile parts along with a number of M-9
Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs).
Furthermore, the Chinese assistance extended to training
Pakistani missile crews in the assembly, maintenance, and
simulated launches of these missiles. Chinese assistance most
likely encompassed equipment and technology transfers in the
areas of solid-fuel propellants, manufacture of airframes,
re-entry thermal protection materials, post-boost vehicles,
guidance and control, missile computers, integration of
warheads, and the manufacture of transporter-erector launchers
(TELs) for the missiles.
In 1991, the US objected to Chinese sales of M-11 ballistic
missile technologies to Pakistan and for the first time
imposed sanctions on China in accordance with the newly passed
Missile Technology Control Act. The sanctions were imposed for
alleged exports of M-11 ballistic missiles to Pakistan. Soon
after the US sanctions, Beijing agreed to observe the MTCR
guidelines.
Subsequently, Washington waived off sanctions only to
re-impose them back when evidence indicated continuing Chinese
missile sales to Pakistan from 1992-93. In December 1992,
reports surfaced that China had transferred 34 complete M-11
missiles to Pakistan and also allegedly built a turnkey
missile plant for Pakistan at Tarwanah, a suburb of Rawalpindi,
in violation of its 1991 pledge. As a result, in May 1993, the
Clinton Administration re-imposed MTCR-related sanctions
against China.
Apparently, development flight tests of the Shaheen-II began
in March 2004 when a 26-tonne missile was launched from
Pakistan’s Somiani Flight Test Range in the Arabian Sea.
According to the Chairman of Pakistan’s National Engineering
and Scientific Commission, Samar Mubarakmand, the missile
covered a distance of 1,800 kms during the test. Thereafter,
reports in summer 2007 stated that Pakistan had commenced the
process of deployment of the Shaheen-II.
Besides, there could well be numerous factors that play a
crucial role in the growing dominance of the missile leg in
Pakistan’s weapons arsenal. Pakistan has been unable to
augment its fleet of modern combat aircrafts due to the past
US policy of military and economic sanctions designed to
arrest and slow down Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme.
Even though Pakistan is now a US ally in the global war on
terrorism, Washington has been rather hesitant to supply
Islamabad with advanced combat aircrafts as it would
invariably add to the latter’s nuclear strike capability.
Furthermore, the country’s frail economy has prevented the
Pakistan Air Force from undertaking major fleet expansion and
modernization efforts by making the switch from US to European
and Russian suppliers. Finally, the unfolding and potential
advances in India’s air-combat, air-defence, and long-range
reconnaissance capabilities seem to be channeling Pakistani
investments into bolstering its ballistic missile-based
capabilities.
For this reason, the missile test by Pakistan is yet another
trigger at altering the existing strategic equation in South
Asia. On its part, India for decades has countenanced the
Chinese-Pakistan nuclear and missile collaboration as one of
the gravest challenges posed to its peace and security and the
testing of Shaheen-II is the newest testament to the same. In
all certainty, the near future is likely to witness counter
reactions to this recent initiation by Pakistan, thereby
plunging the subcontinent into yet another stage of a
spiraling arms race.--INFA
(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)
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