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ROUND THE WORLD
PM’s China Visit
SYMBOLISM OVER SUBSTANCE
By Seema Sridhar
School of International Studies, JNU
New Delhi, January 21, 2008
The Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh just concluded
his first State visit to India’s largest and most
awe-inspiring neighbour, the People’s Republic of China. The
two sides have signed 11 wide-ranging agreements, decided to
triple the trade target within the next four years and deepen
their defence engagement. The current visit, just weeks after
India and China held their first-ever joint military exercise
in December 2007, a landmark confidence building measure
augers well for bilateral ties.
China’s significance to India because of its location, it’s
imposing geographical size, magnitude of its armed forces that
have recently been modernized and now most importantly its
economic supremacy brought about by its rather unusual blend
of capitalism and communism renders this visit of prime
importance to India’s foreign policy.
The historical ties between the countries, cradling the
world’s ancient civilizations have been characterized by
mutual mistrust and cynicism in the past. Efforts to build
bridges have always been marred by this mutual suspicion
rising especially from the border disputes between the two.
The results that have emerged out of such State visits in the
past have been if anything, cosmetic in nature.
What is it that makes this State visit different? What are the
most important issues that are being addressed? And what are
the possible outcomes of these?
India and China are two of the fastest growing economies and
have been competing with each other for foreign investment.
The two are the most populous nations of the world and have to
face the common challenges of developing economies which are
in transition. They are also facing the common threat of
terrorism and insurgency within their respective national
boundaries. These commonalities need to be found and furthered
in the midst of systemic differences between these two
essentially diverse nations.
One issue where the interests of New Delhi and Beijing have
converged is climate change. At the UN Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change Conference in Bangkok in May 2007,
China made a submission that developed countries should
formally recognize they were responsible for 95 per cent of
the green house gas emissions from the pre-industrial era to
1950, and for 77 per cent from 1950 to 2000.
This contention was strongly backed by India and Brazil and
the three of them rejected that all the countries had to bear
the responsibility of combating climate change equally.
Instead, they pushed for increased focus on the rich,
developed countries whose per capita green house emissions
were far steeper than those of the developing world. Thus, the
dragon and the elephant found their common strengthened voice
against imposition of emission curbs and their own view of
combating the global threat of climate change, reflecting a
larger stand for the developing world.
Speaking of areas that have immense potential for cooperation,
trade is one such area which is under-exploited. In 2003, the
two Governments had established a Joint Study Group to examine
the potential for economic engagement. The most significant
decision taken during this round of talks was to set an
ambitious two-way trade target of $60 billion by 2010 ---
reflecting their confidence to make business the primary
vehicle to lead the rapidly growing relations.
Economic ties between these two economic growth propellers in
Asia, has not reached it full potential despite bilateral
trade crossing $30 billion in 2007. The previous target of $40
billion by 2010 is expected to be reached this year itself.
However, the high non-tariff barriers are acting as one of the
major impediments towards this end. The tilt in the trade
balance in Beijing’s favour is a source of discomfort to New
Delhi.
The Indian exports in finished goods fall short of
expectations as compared to the raw materials and these need
to be reversed in New Delhi’s interests. The barriers to
direct investments imposed in India and the undeclared
restrictions imposed on the import of cotton by China have
been key concerns. The revision of import duty on cotton in
India would give respite to the Indian farmers growing cotton.
Any progress in this arena would boost economic ties and set
the tone for a distant vision of economic cooperation
replacing competition and needs to be furthered by the Joint
Study Groups.
India’s growing ties with the United States is not seen
favourably by Beijing even though New Delhi has made it clear
that it is not part of any ‘contain China’ strategy. The
Chinese position on India's civil nuclear cooperation is also
expected to be part of the discussions. New Delhi is hopeful
that Beijing’s perceptions of the same would be more positive
after this round of talks.
Officials in New Delhi have stated that India has not
explicitly sought the support of China in the 45-nation
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) during the talks. Beijing has
always been wary of New Delhi’s traditional support to the
Tibetans and there are other issues of strategic alignments in
the region such as China’s long standing support to Pakistan,
the Chinese influence in Myanmar, which add fuel to the
atmosphere of Sino-Indian distrust.
The most contentious historical dispute between the two is
over the boundary line that stretches across the Himalayan
ranges. According to New Delhi, China is illegally occupying
43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir, including 5,180 sq km
illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad under the
Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement in 1963.
China’s contention is that India possesses some 90,000 sq km
of Chinese territory, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh. Since 1988,
when the then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, visited China, a
new phase of rapprochement began, which continues to this day,
without any substantive conclusion over the border dispute.
During the 1990’s, India and China held a series of talks to
create the conditions for a fair boundary settlement. The 1993
and 1996 agreements to maintain peace and tranquility along
the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) were results of this phase.
After ten meetings of a Sino-Indian Joint Working Group (SIJWG)
and five of an expert group to resolve where the LoAC lies,
scant progress has been made.
The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and his Chinese
counterpart, Wen Jiabao, have decided not to let their
five-decade border dispute cloud the growth in their
relationship and have now set a deadline for "arriving at an
agreed framework of settlement" to the problem.
With the Chinese recognition of Sikkim as a part of India by
opening the Nathu La pass to trade and the Indian recognition
of Tibet as an autonomous part of China, a certain degree of
understanding was reached on two of the many difficult border
issues between the two neighbours, no matter if they are not
resolved completely.
During the Chinese President Hu's visit in November 2006 the
two countries laid down a ten-pronged strategy to improve the
quality of the bilateral ties. The Indian side underplayed the
reports of Chinese incursions in Arunachal Pradesh during the
discussions. The official position is that other mechanisms
were in place to discuss any such issue.
Decades of negotiations over disputed glaciers has only
resulted in a commitment to resolve the dispute through
dialogue. The way both sides perceive activities on either
side of the border are very different and unilateral in
approach, which is why not much was expected on the boundary
dispute front, during the talks.
True, emphasis upon economic relations is necessary for mutual
co-operation and growth, but relations would be mired in
mutual skepticism until the border issue is resolved. Since
security relations are pre-dominant in the Sino-Indian
relationship, no substantive result is expected in the near
future as far as this sphere is concerned. This visit is
therefore symbolic of a willingness to co-exist and to explore
possibilities to co-operate with each other, placed in the
larger regional and global context. ----INFA
(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)
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