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ROUND THE WORLD
PM’s Passage to China
EXPECTATIONS & IMPORTANCE
Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi, January 14, 2008
The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh began his first official
visit to China yesterday (January 13). He will be on the
Chinese soil for three days to cement further existing ties
between the two countries.
How significant is this visit? And what will be the outcome?
Whenever a summit between Indian and Chinese leaders take
place, speculations and expectations go up in the air about
some breakthrough in the resolution of the territorial
disputes between the two countries. Similar is the case, as
the Prime Minister begins his talks with his Chinese
counterparts.
Ever since China invaded India in October 1962, occupied
several thousand square kilometers of Indian land and
unilaterally declared ceasefire, the relationship between the
two Asian giants have never been quite normal. In the
post-Cold War strategic scenario, the two countries agreed to
maintain peace and tranquility along the border, established
joint working groups and expert groups to mutually discuss the
territorial dispute and come up with some formula to resolve
the issue.
Several rounds of negotiations have taken place, but no
solution of this emotive issue has come about. In the
meantime, reports of border tensions along the Line of Actual
Control (LAC) have periodically raised concerns particularly
in the border states of the North-east, especially Arunachal
Pradesh including Tawang, which the Chinese continue to claim
as their territory. Also, Beijing has still not officially
recognized Sikkim as a part of India.
However, the Ministry of External Affairs has already warned
against high expectations from Manmohan Singh’s three days
sojourn in China. Notwithstanding, that the Prime Minister
discussed the vexed border issue with his counterpart Wen
Jiabao over dinner last night prior to the delegation-level
talks today. (More later)
The significance of Singh’s trip to China or lack of it is
reflected in the fact that this is going to be the first
official prime ministerial trip to Beijing in more than four
years! He has visited the United States, Russia, and Japan to
strengthen the strategic partnerships with all these three
major powers. China comes the last.
Moreover, leaders from very many countries have made their
annual pilgrimages to the People’s Republic of China where
capitalism is thriving under Communist rule, but the father of
the Indian economic reforms chose Beijing as his last
destination among the major global powers.
True, the Prime Minister hosted the Chinese President, Hu
Jintao, in 2005 and may have inter-acted with him and other
Chinese leaders in various international forums, but there
have been very few summit meetings between Indian and Chinese
leaders under the UPA Government that came to power in
mid-2004.
There is no doubt that Sino-Indian relations in the economic
field are on the upswing. There are predictions that China at
the current rate of growth of trade with India may even
surpass the United States and become the largest trading
partner of India in the near future. This can actually serve
as great rhetoric, but the reality is it can hardly replace
the strategic significance of the Indian economic ties with
the US.
Besides, it is very difficult to beat China in statistical
representation of its economic successes. It is emerging as a
big challenge to the US dominance in Asian trade even with
American allies, such as Japan and South Korea. But as far as
India is concerned, China will be co-existing with
considerable uneasiness for a considerable time in the future.
India’s increasingly intense engagement with China is a
positive development for both the countries as well as for
peace and stability in the Asian continent. The territorial
disputes between the two countries have not been allowed to
pose an insurmountable road-block in the economic and
socio-cultural exchanges between the two countries. Both the
countries have also developed adequate deterrence to refrain
from military exchanges.
All these are good news. But the economic geography and the
geo-politics of Asia will make China and India competitors in
the short term and rivals in the long term. And this explains
the uneasy co-existence of these two Asian giants. India’s
geographical and demographical size, comparable civilization
and historical depth along with its rapid economic progress
and military modernization have made China sit up and look at
India as its major emerging challenge in Asia.
There was a time when Beijing was not prepared to sit and
discuss with New Delhi security issues, including the nuclear
issues, on the ground that India was not a major power actor
in international politics. Today, when the whole world looks
at India as a rising power, China has altered its opinion and
engagement policy. What are the Chinese concerns and
approaches?
Firstly, Beijing has been apprehensively watching the
unprecedented improvement in Indo-US relations in the security
and defense sectors and appears to be more concerned about the
Indo-US nuclear deal that may truly elevate New Delhi’s
strategic partnership with Washington to new heights. If this
materializes, China’s misplaced fear of encirclement by the US
and its allies/partners would look more real to Beijing.
Secondly, China appears to be envious of India’s rising
defense and security relationships with Japan, the
Indo-Chinese countries and the South-East Asian nations. As
India enters into more and more agreements with these
countries on naval cooperation, arms transfer, military
exercises and intelligence sharing which China has not been
able to do so at a similar scale, Beijing’s apprehensions are
further compounded.
It is a fact that East and South-East Asian countries consider
China as a potential threat and tremendous challenge to their
security. The same countries have little to fear from
democratic India. Whatever little apprehensions were there in
late 1980s and early 1990s regarding the Indian military,
particularly naval, modernization and expansions have
disappeared with New Delhi’s close inter-actions with these
countries.
Thirdly, India’s naval exercises with Japan and the United
States in the Pacific and with Australia, Singapore, Japan and
the US in the Indian Ocean, coupled with proposals for closer
ties among Asian democracies have generated a sense of
isolation among the Chinese leaders.
Somehow the Chinese now feel the need to be in the centre of
activities and attractions in whatever sub-regional or
regional groupings that are being formed in Asia. Any forum
where India is in and China is out creates doubts and
suspicion in the Chinese minds.
Beijing has, of course, not kept quiet. It tries its best to
keep India out of several initiatives and conflict management
efforts in Asia. Firstly, India should have been ideally a
member of the multi-lateral mechanism to address the nuclear
question of the Korean Peninsula.
The Group of Six should have been the Group of Seven by
including India. Since North Korea has been a long standing
arms supplier to Pakistan and has illegal Weapons of Mass
Destruction (WMDs) linkages with Pakistan, New Delhi should
have been part of the diplomatic efforts to denuclearize the
Korean Peninsula. It is China that could be held responsible
for India’s exclusion.
Secondly, China is currently on its way to creating road
blocks for the successful evolution of the East Asian Summit
forum where India is an original member. While New Delhi wants
this forum to be an inclusive one, Beijing supports the idea
of making it a two-stage process, the first being the ASEAN.
And the second, where China is a member but India is not.
Thirdly, China has not endorsed the Indian proposal for
establishing an Asian Economic Community to include all the
countries located in a region spanning from the Himalayas to
the Pacific. Beijing would not like New Delhi to steal the
show by making such grand initiatives and becoming the core of
such a community.
Thus, the nature of China-India relationship in the years to
come has begun to unfold. It would be characterized by
competition and subsequently rivalry for the Asian leadership.
Nonetheless, it is imperative for New Delhi to engage Beijing
in all aspects and dimensions of its foreign policy. The goal
should be to immunize this competitive spirit from escalating
into a conflict. Manmohan Singh’s trip to China would
certainly be a step further in this direction. ---INFA
(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)
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