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ROUND THE WORLD
Benazir’s Assassination
POWER-SHARING WAY OUT
By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi, January 07, 2008
Political killings in Pakistan are not unprecedented. But
the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in the midst of an
election campaign and widespread hopes of the restoration of
democracy has serious political, economic and security
implications for Pakistan as well as others.
The mystery surrounding her death and the diverse
interpretations, accusations and denials will have a political
impact within Pakistan. And certainly the confused citizens of
Pakistan will exercise their right to vote in the future on
the basis of their own understanding of the situation.
The Opposition parties, including some members of the Bhutto
family have pointed an accusing finger at the Musharraf
Government for failing to provide the necessary protection to
Benazir after her return from self-exile.
But the direct involvement of President Musharraf is unlikely
and he can only be accused of an act of omission rather than
commission. After all, he struck a political deal with Benazir
abroad to share power in the aftermath of the elections under
constant US encouragement.
If the elections had gone ahead and Benazir’s party had
succeeded in winning the majority seats in the National
Assembly, President Musharraf would have gained the most by a
power-sharing arrangement with Benazir. It would have given
legitimacy to his role in restoring the civilian political
processes and perhaps could have brought more positive points
in the country’s public opinion. In any case, he would not
dare support or back a conspiracy to eliminate Benazir after
shedding his uniform.
The Musharraf Government has been consistently pointing the
finger at the Al Qaeda. Although, the accused Al Qaeda members
have denied responsibility in Benazir’s killing, some analysts
believe that there could be an Al Qaeda hand, if not direct,
at least an indirect hand.
First of all, the Taliban and the Al Qaeda, as claimed, may
not kill women, but they would be the last to tolerate a woman
coming to power in Pakistan. More particularly, the anti-US
and anti-Musharraf members of these two organizations would be
the last to tolerate a leader who would strike a deal with the
US and agree to participate in an election that in their view
would be the least fair or free.
Why did the Al Qaeda deny any hand in this gruesome incident?
It is likely that they would not like to provoke a large
section of the Pakistani people who would vote for Benazir.
But these are logical analysis and logic may not lead to
truth. In fact, there is a demand that if the Musharraf
Government accuses the Al Qaeda, then it should come up with
satisfactory evidence to back up its claim.
Then there are others who think that some elements in the
Musharraf Government have been opponents of Benazir and
supporters or sympathizers of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. There
could be a deeper conspiracy to eliminate Benazir from the
political scene with some tacit backing of these elements.
Benazir’s departure from politics could weaken the Pakistan
People’s Party (PPP) and bolster those who were soft on
religious extremists or even religious moderates. Once again
there is no evidence.
Given the complications of this issue and the lack of clear
evidence at the moment, the Democratic Presidential candidate
of the US, Hillary Clinton, has called for an independent
international investigation to this incident. But will
Pakistan agree? Investigations always take time.
Now more pressing issues are keeping the efforts to restore
democracy on. Since the PPP has agreed to participate in the
elections and the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has
agreed to reconsider his earlier refusal to participate in the
elections, there is little likelihood of an emergency being
declared or the consolidation of power by the military.
The Bush Administration has been putting considerable pressure
on Musharraf to democratize the polity. It was Washington that
encouraged Musharraf and Benazir to sort out their
long-standing differences and reach an understanding to
restore democracy in Pakistan. There were also speculations
about an informal power-sharing arrangement between Musharraf
and Benazir.
It was Washington which egged on the Pakistani President to
give up his uniform and lift the national emergency imposed by
him in the aftermath of the spreading terrorist activities and
suicide bombings. The Bush Administration did not want the
terrorist groups to prevent democratization and under the same
logic pressures are coming from Washington to hold elections
even after Benazir’s assassination.
Elections are just a matter of time. But will Pakistan be
stable during the election process? Can there be free and fair
elections if terrorist activities continue? Can the Government
maintain law and order without resorting to excessive force or
even curtailing personal liberty?
If elections do take place, will there be proper restoration
of civilian authority? If religious parties, widely assessed
as having minority support in the country, win a large number
of seats, what may be the security fall-out? Can there be a
power sharing arrangement between Musharraf and the religious
groups? If not, will there be more violence? If yes, what will
be its impact on the war on terrorism?
There are more questions than answers to Pakistan’s current
crisis and its implications. The Bush Administration hopes
that the restoration of a certain degree of civilian authority
would turn Pakistan more stable and would make more numbers of
Pakistanis abandon their anti-American sentiments and
opinions. It also hopes that a good combination of civilian
and military authority in Pakistan would strengthen its
efforts to deal with the Al Qaeda threats in Pakistan and
Afghanistan.
Elections in Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan did not bring
expected results. Similar fate awaits Pakistan in the near
future. Civilian rulers in Pakistan brought no great results
for India-Pakistan relations in the past, nor did the military
rulers. Maybe, a power-sharing arrangement between these two
sections of the Pakistani society will bring better results
for the country and its neighbours and allies. ---- INFA
(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)
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