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ROUND THE WORLD
Pakistan In Turmoil
WILL FOREIGN FORCES INTERVENE?
By Dr Chintamani Mahapatra
(School of International Studies, JNU)
New Delhi, February 11, 2008
If any one raises a question about the possibility of an
international/western military intervention in Pakistan, it
raises several eyebrows. A country with demonstrated nuclear
weapon and missile capability will not allow any foreign
military interference.
Needless to say, hundreds of foreign interventions have
occurred in developing and under-developed countries of Asia,
Africa and Latin America in the history of international
relations. Currently, Iraq and Afghanistan are under foreign
military occupation. But there is no record of foreign
military intervention in a country that possesses Weapons of
Mass Destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems.
Will Pakistan be an example of such a country in the not so
distant future? Such a question is perhaps legitimate to ask,
because there is no country with nuclear weapon capability
that is so unstable politically, so weak economically and so
divisive socially as Pakistan is.
There have been several news reports in the aftermath of the
9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States alluding to the
lack of sufficient safeguards of the nuclear weapons in
Pakistan. There have been some reports that have claimed that
the Americans and Israelis have developed a contingency plan
to take charge of the country's nuclear weapons if Pakistan
slides down the road of chaos.
These reports have been taken very seriously by the ruling
establishment of Pakistan. The President Gen Pervez Musharraf
has made several comments saying that his country's nuclear
weapons are absolutely in safe hands and that there is a
proper command and control system to take care of the weapons.
He has also warmed against any foreign interventions in the
internal affairs of Pakistan.
But the fact remains that the country has been facing an
unprecedented state of instability and insecurity and the
situation has been deteriorating fast with every passing day.
Pakistan was initially an incubator of international
terrorists, but has now become a victim of its own creation.
Bombs have been exploding near the Army General's
headquarters, market places, political rallies and even holy
places of worship.
Secondly, millions of dollars of American assistance have
enriched the country's military arsenals rather than enhanced
the capability of the State to fight terrorist groups. The
military rulers have used the money to buy weapons that can be
used in conventional warfare rather than cared to enhance the
counter-terrorism capabilities.
Thirdly, President Musharraf's attempt to co-opt some of the
tribal leaders of the North Western Frontier Province did not
bring desired results. This region of Pakistan bordering the
strife-torn Afghanistan remains as ungovernable as ever. The
Pakistani Army's inability to maintain order has exposed the
country's vulnerability and the danger it could pose to the
entire region surrounding Pakistan and even beyond.
Fourthly, the belief that democratic elections could bring
normalcy to Pakistan has been shattered by the inhuman
assassination of the former two-time Prime Minister Benazir
Bhutto. The people in Pakistan and even abroad doubt if the
forthcoming elections are going to be fair and free. Some
argue that a rigged election could maintain the political
status quo and generate more violence and instability. Others
fear that religious groups may be able to enhance their
influence in the society.
Fifthly, the country's economic performance does not appear be
bright in the wake of the prevailing chaos, rising terrorist
violence, political uncertainties and growing Talibanization
of the society. The Pakistani economy does not have sound
fundamentals. It is by and large an aid-dependent economy. It
was actually on the verge of collapse when the 9/11 incident
occurred and the Bush Administration came to rescue it. If the
economy loses it positive growth trend, one can expect the
country to face more trouble and turbulence.
Pakistan today can be characterized as a nation that has a
weak economy, strong terrorist infrastructures, undemocratic
Government, spreading of religious extremism, and deadly
Weapons of Mass Destruction. It presents the picture of a
problem that cannot be solved without robust foreign
intervention.
The American and NATO forces have been in Afghanistan for
quite sometime to eliminate the Al Qaeda and Taliban influence
and rebuild the country into a democratic and tolerant entity.
But the efforts have hardly produced credible results after
more than six years of Western involvement and Asian support.
The general belief is that the key to success in the Afghan
mission is in Pakistan. What happens to Afghanistan if
Pakistan is down the road to ruins?
It is an uncomfortable proposition to raise the question of a
possible NATO intervention in Pakistan. But unless normalcy
returns to that country, this would soon become a topic of
high level deliberations in important world Capitals. Will an
incapable military regime in Pakistan invite foreign forces
for help to stabilize the country? Will it resist such an
international effort on the ground of violation of its
sovereignty?
Actually, without the support and concurrence of the ruling
regime of Pakistan, it is not possible for any international
force to intervene in that country. It would be a clear cut
case of disaster. But if the Pakistani Government fails to
stabilize and normalize the volatile situation in the country
and the negative repercussions of a chaotic Pakistan spreads
to different regions of the world, can the international
community afford to be an innocent by-stander?
From all possible angles, it appears that India has to take
note of these serious developments in its neighbourhood and
think through desirable steps to address the contingencies
politically, diplomatically and even militarily. Pakistan
today needs India's help more than ever in the past.
The peace process in the sub-Continent has come a long way.
Pakistan is hardly regarded as an enemy country in India
today, although the past memories are yet to be erased
successfully. It is a neighbour in trouble. New Delhi has to
devise a policy of good neighbourliness to help Islamabad in
ways that would not hurt the Pakistani pride and self-esteem.
Nothing like engaging the Government that is at the helm of
affairs. President Pervez Musharraf, who got uncountable kudos
from the West for his anti-terrorism cooperation, has become
suspect. It is because of the rising trend of terrorist
activities in Pakistan and the growing influence of the
Taliban in Afghanistan. It is time for more robust
anti-terrorist cooperation with the Pakistani Government. A
stable Pakistan can ensure a secure South Asia. --- INFA
(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)
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