Round The World

Political Infighting In Nepal

NEW DELHI NEEDS TO BE CAUTIOUS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

New Delhi, August 16, 2010

The recently concluded visit of India’s special envoy and former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran to Kathmandu came at a crucial time in Nepal’s beleaguered politics. Particularly, as the initial jubilation, a result of the Maoist electoral victory two years ago failed to produce any viable outcome in terms of real political stability. The country has been in the throes of a political stalemate for quite some time now. Wherein the Nepali Parliament even after four rounds of voting to nominate a Prime Minister failed to produce a leader.

As the political impasse in the Himalayan kingdom continues, India needs to take steps very cautiously. New Delhi’s relationship with the influential Maoist Party and the erstwhile guerilla leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda can hardly be called easy. In Nepal’s nascent Republic, domestic differences continue over the framing of the final Constitution and governance after the Maoist’s return to mainstream politics making the monarchy redundant.

Neither the Nepali Congress which enjoys better ties with India nor the Maoist Party that accuses India of meddling in the internal affairs of the new Republic have been able to secure enough majority in Parliament to form a new Government after the resignation of the former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal.

The rapidly deteriorating situation seriously concerns New Delhi. Clearly, developments have spill-over consequences for India and weigh heavily in its foreign policy calculations. New Delhi’s concerns over the Maoist Party’s close ties with competitor China are palpable and hence it would not want the Communist party to single-handedly control Nepal’s politics.

India favours a democracy where there would be enough consultation and negotiation before any decision is taken. The radical political gestures by the Maoist Party accusing New Delhi of playing a less optimistic role as Kathmandu falters to find political stability does not augur well for India-Nepal ties.

On the other hand, New Delhi as the more developed and bigger neighbour should be magnanimous in its policy. It should try and win the confidence of all the parties in Nepal which is trying to learn the first steps to becoming a fully functional democracy. India should deploy its soft diplomacy to the maximum but simultaneously take due account of the sensibilities and concerns of the largest party in the Himalayan nation.

Down south, Sri Lanka has just come out of the throes of a long civil war and is tracing its steps back to being an inclusive country. India-Pakistan relations are back on the diplomatic table after a long hiatus following the 26/11 attacks. The prospects don’t look optimistic but talks are still on.
At this juncture, New Delhi cannot afford to open another fissure in its neighbourhood. Therefore, India cannot lose track of the evolving situation in Nepal. It has to walk the diplomatic path keeping its interest in mind but at the same time without appearing to intervene in the affairs of another country.
Of late, New Delhi has constantly come under accusations for negatively influencing the winds of change in Nepali politics. As such, incremental steps have to be taken where all factions in Nepal begin to have confidence in the positive contribution of the Indian economy and foreign policy, specifically towards its neigbouring countries.

Recall, in 2008 the Maoists won an unprecedented victory in the elections and came to power, albeit in alliance with other parties. And desired to form a Government of its own and establish blanket Communist rule in Kathmandu. The icing on the cake was Prachanda’s victory with an overwhelming majority of Parliamentary parties and lawmakers favoring his leadership in the Prime Ministerial poll.

However, today, Prachanda is not able to muster enough votes to usher in political stability, notwithstanding, his rival, Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel securing lesser votes.

The smaller Parties reportedly abstained from voting expressing a lack of confidence in the candidates of both the major parties.

The Maoists have also rapidly failed the expectations of the people. Moreover, they have been accused of being bad losers, when their proposals for the new Constitution were out-voted by the ruling coalition. In addition, the issue of integrating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the Nepali army has marred the stability of the fragile democracy, with the army vehemently opposed to an en masse induction of the Maoist cadres. Probably, the Maoists wanted to control the army with a large scale integration of the PLA.

It is not rocket science to discern that New Delhi will be apprehensive of any move towards totalitarianism in the region. Given that it has had to grapple with Pakistan’s military dictatorships. A possible move towards Communist totalitarianism in Nepal would discomfort New Delhi.
Pertinently, Kathmandu has been under a monarchical regime for years, which finally fell apart in 2006 following an agreement thus paving the way for the erstwhile Maoist guerilla forces to enter the political mainstream through democratic means. Importantly, the Maoists brought a historic change in Nepal.

But, recent events reiterate the fact that democracy is not just about elections and voting.
True, the Maoists brought a change of monumental proportions in Nepal but all forms of transition need time and painful consensus building process for a “soft landing”. The Nepali Congress with which India shares good ties has lost its clout after the death of its influential leader Girija Prasad Koirala.

Considering the long Indo-Nepal border, close cultural and economic ties and the looming shadow of China, it is naive to expect India to be a benchwarmer. It is no secret that sections of the political class in Kathmandu tend to blame New Delhi for its woes and want closer ties with Beijing to counter the Indian influence in the region.

As such, New Delhi needs to express its concerns and maintain its support for democracy and effective governance, while trying to reassure the people and the Nepalese Establishment that it has no interest in meddling in its internal affairs. According to India’s ambassador to Nepal Rakesh Sood, New Delhi is concerned about the delay in drafting the Constitution and rehabilitating the PLA fighters. India is also reportedly worried about the influx of terrorists through the Nepali border.

As Nepal awaits a fifth round of voting in Parliament and people’s confidence in major parties wane, the hope is that the Parties would emphasise the primacy of the Constitution drafting process. The Constituent Assembly was elected in May 2008 with a two year mandate but it was further extended in order to complete the Constitution. However, as events indicate, little progress has made in the process.

If this political stalemate continues, the power vacuum created would spawn further uncertainly and instability in the country and discredit the Parties in the eyes of the public. This would be fatal for the democratic process in Nepal. ----- INFA
 

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

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