|
Sarkaritel.com News and Features
Immediate action needed
to limit global warming: Nicholas Stern
New Delhi, December 10, 2006
Immediate international action is required to limit the
impact of global warming and all countries, rich and poor,
have to share the costs of adaptation and mitigation, said
Head of the Government Economics Service, UK, Nicholas Stern,
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere have
to stabilize between 450 and 550 parts per million (PPM), over
the next two decades, Sir Nicholas said. This will imply a 50
percent probability of a 3-4°C increase in average
temperatures.
Industrialized countries will have to curb emissions while
rapidly industrializing economies will have to switch to less
carbon intensive technologies. This process will cost percent
of the GDP, he said. This is an acceptable cost that will
allow, both the industrialized and developing countries, to
continue to grow. "However, not controlling climate change
will be anti-growth."
Strong mitigation is fully consistent with the aspirations
of growth both the rich and poor countries. These costs, Sir
Nicholas said, will not be evenly distributed because there
are different perspectives on competitiveness in rich and poor
countries.
Countries also need to realize that climate change is a
reality and will be around for some time, he said. They need
to evolve policies to mitigate its effects with a
carrot-and-stick approach to reduce carbon-intensive
development and growth. For example, carbon pricing via taxes
or trading, enforced through regulation, can pay for
environmental damage.
Sir Nicholas said countries need to bring forward research
on lower carbon technologies. They need to overcome
information barriers and reduce transaction costs with regard
to regulation and standards. There is need to evolve a
national and international consensus on what constitutes
responsible behaviour.
It is estimated that in India, a temperature rise of 2 -
3.5 °C will lead to a loss of 20 percent in revenue from
agriculture. This will reduce GDP growth by 0.67 percent. A
100 cm rise in sea levels will shave 3-6 percent off the
country's GDP. Climate change will also impact health across
the country notably by expanding the regions vulnerable to
malaria. High-altitude states will become prone to the
disease, necessitating expansion of the national malaria
eradication programme. The frequency of extreme climatic
events will also increase.
The good news on the Indian front is that energy intensity
of industry has declined over the past 20 years. India needs
to take managerial decisions to mitigate its impact on climate
change and adapt to what is happening now.
Sir Nicholas said one of the ways to ensure that rich and
poor countries equitably share the costs of mitigating climate
change is to accelerate the flows of finances through the
clean development mechanism. This has to be in the region of
$20 b a year, that is much higher than what is has been so
far. However, the market is still evolving.
Mitigating climate change will create enormous, new
business opportunities, estimated at $500 billion. This will
come from expansion of EU-ETS, new schemes in Australia, Japan
and USA, changes in the Clean Development Mechanism and
concessional sources of finance, he said.
Climate change and energy go together because energy
sources account for 65 percent of all carbon emissions, he
said. Energy access and security have to go together. If coal
is central to energy security, then its use has to go hand in
hand with carbon capture and storage, Sir Nicholas said.
E-Mail :
newseditor@sarkaritel.com |
